Today I’m not addressing any of the world’s problems. Despite the withdrawal of the Russian Ambassador to NATO, or Japan taking the position that any missiles originating from North Korea will be shot down, I’m going to address a more pressing issue that is much closer to home. You ready? Okay, welcome to the South! Each year during spring, while baseball parks are opening up and flowers start growing again, we have to deal with an insidious invasion of pollen. Regardless of how many times, or how often, you sweep or blow off your cars, decks, etc., the world retains a strange yellowish/green hue. Pollen counts are through the roof, and everyone suffers from some sort of cough, wheeze, or other respiratory ailment. This year is no exception, and it is obvious that as the layers of this toxic dust cover all surfaces, misery will take the form of constant nose running, hay fever, or worse. Sadly, by the time this stuff begins to abate, the temperatures will rise to a level that will make most of us equally miserable. This is the ONLY down side to moving to a place that doesn’t sell snow shovels. ~ Michael S. Pauley
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Just a brief word about sources and recommendations for some hard core readings. As you may have gleaned already, I do read quite a bit, and oddly, it is seldom in the genre of science fiction. Instead, most of my reading comes from rather dry or bland historical documents, treatises, or more current periodicals. For example, Foreign Affairs is an excellent source for background in geopolitical thinking. Sometimes history has proven their thinkers absolutely dead wrong. (Some articles written prior to World War II are just such examples of the errors in precognitive writings.) Still, most of the time, they offer an insight that is invaluable and highly accurate about what is going on in the world around us.
Another absolutely fascinating source is a website that is devoted to open source intelligence information. This leader in open source intelligence is the best you will ever encounter, and can be found at STRATFOR. [ http://www.stratfor.com ]. If you really want to know what is going on in the world, then this is the place to look for breaking news, analysis, and a deep insight well beyond that which you get from the media. I’ve been a subscriber for a number of years, and there is no question that it is a leader in my personal consumption of “breaking news.” There is no slant, but instead, it is just a reporting of what is happening in the world. There is no chasing of mystery, no rampant speculation, and absolute zero wasting of time on the latest fad story. You won’t find the Kardashians, or Paris Hilton. Instead, what you will find is first rate analysis by the two founders of this intelligence gathering organization, George Friedman and Robert D. Kaplan, who along with their staff, are perhaps the best in the business. No, I wasn’t paid by either Foreign Affairs or STRATFOR, I just find that they, along with a plethora of historical texts and sources, allow me to put things in perspective. They also provide an excellent background on which to build a science fiction book. After all, accurate geopolitical analysis, to me, is as important as using hard scientific information in crafting a better science fiction story. It worked pretty well for Jules Verne and H. G. Wells, just to name a few, so why not here! ~ Michael S. Pauley In a recent article posted online at the Council of Foreign Relations, the former Ambassador to Russia, John Beyrle, was interviewed regarding his insights into the current events. A number of his observations are worth noting, and I would highly recommend that you take a quick look at the article, at the “Russia” tab. http://www.cfr.org
In this interview, Ambassador Beyrle offered a number of very interesting opinions, and his assessment appears to be absolutely spot on. So far as it goes, I agree with much that he says, and while I agree we’re not at a break point with the Russians, we are at a point where the prevailing opinion in Russia is against the United States. As we move forward in our attempts to understand, it is important to realize where they see themselves, and where they see both Europe and the United States. From this interview, we can readily see that we are perceived, rightly or wrongly, as pushing the interests of NATO into that zone that Russia sees as the necessary “Buffer” against invasion from the West. While we are very quick to assert the rights of individual Nation States to govern themselves, Russia is equally driven by their own perceived self interest, and individualism or individual rule within a neighbor simply isn’t a concern for them. Historically, the Russians may well have a valid basis for expressing their concerns. After all, the terrain and proximity to a formerly aggressive Europe (and other neighbors) has been the stuff of both legend, and a heinousness almost beyond human comprehension. From the Mongol Hordes, to Napoleon, the Crimean War, and right on down through Nazi Germany, invasions were almost a national past time for the Russians. Thus, their national self interest dictates that they have a buffer of land to allow them to defend themselves. Add to this the demographics of a highly populated western Russia, with the sparsely populated eastern part of the country, and you will see that if NATO pushes up against their border, they believe that they will lose the ability to have what is known as “defense in depth.” Against this paradigm, it is important to remember that while some of us might see the world through rose colored glasses, other nations decidedly do not. Russia doesn’t, and this is something important for us to remember as we tread the tight rope known as foreign diplomacy. They do not trust us, nor do they really trust their neighbors. Of course, trust is a two-way street, since there is little doubt that we should not trust them either. We just need to remember that they will expand or modify the truth to fit their agenda, and if we understand that agenda, then maybe we can use that to our advantage. In the current situation, we have to realize that the Baltic States and Poland, who are now members of NATO, will always be seen as a threat to Russian security. Their only advantage for the present is that they are now members of NATO, which will hopefully cause Russia some pause before fermenting too much trouble. Unfortunately, the rest of the story is that the non-aligned states, such as Moldova and Ukraine, will remain politically volatile and will definitely be seen as demonstrating the worst of the western encroachment into that “buffer” space for Russia. As a result, trouble will haunt these places until the paradigm thinking in Russia changes, or there is a major shift of the reality on the ground. Sadly, I don’t see either of those things happening anytime soon. ~ Michael S. Pauley |
AuthorMichael S. Pauley is a Navy brat and an old soldier who served in all three components of the United States Army. Living in Lexington, South Carolina, Michael is now a practicing attorney and member of the United States Naval Institute and the American Legion, Post 154, Tybee Island, Georgia. Archives
June 2021
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